EBRD confirms Azerbaijan's economic growth forecast


September 28, Fineko/abc.az. The EBRD forecasts Azerbaijan’s GDP growth in 2022 at the level of 4.5%, ABC.AZ reports with reference to September’s Regional Economic Prospects of the Bank.

"The strong performance of the non-energy sector led to economic growth of 6.2% yoy in the first 7 months of 2022. Growth in the non-oil sector made up 9.9%, while in the oil & gas sector there was decline of 0.4% with decrease in oil production in Azerbaijan by 4.5% and increase in gas production by 15.3%," Bank’s report says.

The EBRD points out that due to high prices for hydrocarbons, Azerbaijan has almost doubled its revenue from their exports and received large current account surplus ($10.3 bn in 6 months) and State Budget surplus.

According to bank's estimates, inflation in Azerbaijan accelerated to 14.2% in June, but slowed to 13.7% in July, which is sign of decrease in inflationary pressure.

"The CBA reacted harshly to the increase in inflation at the initial stage and raised the discount rate by 150 basis points in the period from September 2021 to March 2022, but cautiously approached this issue in subsequent periods," the bank emphasizes.

The EBRD believes that high energy prices will support Azerbaijan's economic growth in the near future: 4.5% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023.

"The risks to the Azerbaijani economy are balanced and largely related to energy prices," the review says.

According to EBRD estimates, Armenia's GDP growth in 2022-2023 will be 8% and 4%, respectively, and Georgia's - 8% and 5%, respectively.