Moody`s forecasts average GDP growth of 3.9% in CIS in 2019

13:15 - 18.01.2019


January 18, Fineko/abc.az. International rating agency Moody`s Investors Service forecasts generally stable creditworthiness for CIS in 2019.

Moody`s review says that expectations of sound economic growth compensate for political risks and tighter access to liquidity.

"We expect that economic growth on the CIS area is going to remain stable, averaging 3.9% in the region in 2019, but there is a probability that tougher sanctions against Russia will undermine regional trade and remittances," senior analyst and reviewer Evan Volman says.

According to Moody`s, in addition to the threat of tougher U.S. sanctions against Russia, there are also risks associated with tensions between Russia and Ukraine and internal political instability before the elections in Ukraine and Moldova.

Moody`s analysts note that high dependence on external financing will increase risks for the region due to the tightening of access to liquidity in the world markets. Moreover, political tensions remain a constant source of risk to economic stability and the dynamics of reform in the region.

The Agency does not expect acceleration of the pace of economic reforms in the CIS, as weakness of existing institutions reduces effectiveness of political decisions. In some states of the region large liabilities on expenditures will likely to keep the high debt burden and limit the fiscal capacity.

Moody`s includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Moldova, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Ukraine.

 

 

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