16:41 - 7.02.2019

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February 7, Fineko/abc.az. The European Commission (EC) has reduced much the forecast of growth of the Eurozone economy in 2019.

In the published EC winter forecast, this figure fell to 1.3%, compared with the data of the autumn forecast, where it was at the level of 1.9%. The growth forecast for 2020 also fell from 1.7% to 1.6%.

"However, the data is very conditional, since they practically do not take into account the effect of the UK's exit from the EU (Brexit). We proceeded from the assumption of maintaining the status quo and did not take into account possible trade changes in connection with Brexit," said European Commissioner for Currency & Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici when presenting this forecast.

The European Commission means under the "status quo Brexit" the ideal scenario when the UK will be released in an organized regime and after 29 March will remain part of the European market until the end of 2020 within the agreement on the transition period.

"Hard Brexit can swing indicators beyond the technical capabilities of the forecast," Moscovici acknowledged.

The European Commission has revised the inflation figure, which fell to 1.4% announced in the autumn of last year of 1.8%. In 2020, inflation is expected to rise to 1.5%.

The EC stressed that the reason for this revision of the forecast was "taking into account the slowdown of the European economy in the last quarter of 2018". The European Commission specifies that in 2018 economic growth in the Eurozone fell to 1.9%, compared with 2.4% in 2017. There have ben revised down, in particular, the indicators of such countries as Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. The growth of the German economy is now estimated at 1.1%, compared with 1.8% in the autumn forecast.

In general, the economic growth forecast on 28 EU member states was reduced in winter to 1.5% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, compared to the autumn forecast of the EC, where these figures were at 1.9% and 1.8%, respectively.