17:11 - 2.03.2020

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March 2, Fineko/abc.az. Expert economist Rovshan Agayev calculated the minimum favorable oil price for the State Budget and the balance of payments in 2020.

ABC.AZ reports that according to the expert, the rapid reduction of the oil price has re-actualized discussions related to the violation of macroeconomic stability in resource countries.

The expert says that the price may fall to such a level that the government, even after these steps, will hardly be able to adapt the balance of payments to the minimum available price, and eventually a negative balance of payments will lead to the fact that the government will spend reserves or the national currency will quickly lose value. Agayev believes that no one can predict what the total balance of payments will be, because we do not have the necessary information about the amount of capital that could potentially leave the country in critical political and economic damage: "What is the minimum price of oil for the State Budget of Azerbaijan and the balance of payments? About $50 for the budget. Although the budget estimate is 55, the $50 limit is likely to be the minimum $50 threshold for the budget, without allocating resources and sequestering 5-6% on budget expenditures.

For the balance of payments, this indicator ranges from $45. 2015 is an exceptional year, as $11.5 bn of capital was taken out of the country as a result of sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. But in 2016, when the average oil price was $45, the current account balance and the overall balance of payments did not help avoid a deficit."