IMF predicts an increase in SOFAZ assets by 82% by 2028

15:21 - 8.07.2022


July 8, Fineko/abc.az. The International Monetary Fund forecasts an increase in the assets of the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) to $82.076 bn by 2028.

ABC.AZ reports that by the end of 2021, SOFAZ assets totaled $45.025 bn. Thus, in 2022-2027, they will increase by 82.3%.

Such forecasts were made by the IMF following consultations with the Azerbaijani government on Article IV held from 25 May to 7 June 2022.

According to the IMF estimates, following 2022, SOFAZ assets will reach $53.426 bn (an increase of 18.7% compared with 2021), by the end of 2023 - $62.168 bn, and by 2024 - $70.7 bn.

In 2025, SOFAZ's assets will increase to $76.58 bn, in 2026 - $79.84 bn, in 2027 - $82.076 bn.

"Azerbaijan's economy benefits from higher energy prices as a result of the war in Ukraine. It is predicted that growth of energy prices and the potential growth in gas exports to Europe will increase the country's exports and budget revenues in the medium-term prospect. At that, SOFAZ's assets are projected to reach 100% of GDP in 2025," the Fund's comments say.

According to the IMF estimates, in 2022 the price of Azerbaijani oil (including the premium) will be $108.5 a barrel (in 2021 - $71.1 a barrel), in 2023 - $96.5/bar, in 2024 - $85.7/bar, in 2025 - $78.7/bar, in 2026 - $74.4/bar, in 2027 - $72.2/bar.

As of 1 April 2022, SOFAZ's assets are estimated at $45.26 bn.

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