Baku, Fineko/abc.az. World experts have begun speculative manipulation with forecasts of prices for world economy’s base resource – crude oil. It is done under the plausible pretext of uncertainty of world economy development in 2010.

Forbes journal’s expert Christopher Helman predicts collapse of oil prices up to $40 per barrel as Middle East producers will increase supplies to settle with overseas creditors. Helman considers it as good news for US economy.

Conference Board analytical company’s leading economist Ken Goldstein admits speculative minimal price of barrel fall to $60 for very short time spans as there are not objective economic causes for substantial fluctuations.

“Value of oil can rise this spring before to return in summer to the level of $85-80 per barrel at which it will keep until the end of 2010. Dynamics of expected demand and supply does not dictate higher levels of oil price but speculations at the energy market can push the price both up and easily wreck it to $60 per barrel,” Goldstein thinks.

Analysts of banking holding Goldman Sachs, that is traditionally exact in such forecasts to the maximum extent, have announced the forecast of average annual price at the level of $85 per barrel.

Oil market expert Roger Hovard says that if there is no turn of recession in the United States or an “economic soap-bubble” in China does not burst, then in 2010 the oil price will overtop price barrier of $100 per barrel.

Reuter agency’s expert pool representing point of view of 29 analysts has announced on Monday that it expects average annual oil price at the level of $77.5 per barrel. According to the US Department of Energy, average annual price per barrel will rise up to $80 in 2010 and up to $84 in 2011. For the past year it reached $62 per barrel of US oil.

Azerbaijan, whose at least 50% of oil is sold at the US market, passed  forecast of average export oil price of $45 per barrel for 2010 (versus $70 in 2009) for State Budget purposes.

26.01.2010 10:22