Baku, Fineko/abc.az. Saxo Bank has published its annual “shocking predictions” for the global economy next year. Among the risks that investors should consider the formation of the portfolio in 2012, Saxo Bank has called a recession in Australia.

In his “shocking predictions” Saxo Bank is focused on the events, the probability of which is low, but at the same time much higher than the market requires. These predictions are not predictions, but are factors that investors should take into account when forming his portfolio in 2012. If any of these events happens, it will have a significant impact on the markets.

Saxo Bank’s "shocking forecasts" for 2012:

1.  Apple’s stock will fall in price by 50% compared with a peak in 2011. Analysts believe that in 2012 Apple will face numerous competitors – Google, Amazon, Microsoft / Nokia and Samsung – in a segment of their most innovative products, iPhone and the iPad. Companies will not be able to maintain its market share of 55% (three times more than Android) for iOS and 66% for the iPad.

2. The  EU will announce long bank holiday next year. Bankers believe that the changes in the EC Treaty, adopted in December, will be enough to solve financial problems, in particular, in Italy, and by mid-year debt crisis hit with a bang. As a result, the stock market can not survive and will collapse by 25% in a short time. EU politicians will be forced to declare a long bank holiday and closed all European stock exchanges and banks in the week and maybe longer.

3. The White House comes as yet unknown candidate. Analysts believe that someone who offers an effective program for real changes to appear on the scene in early 2012, and in November, will compete for the presidency during one of the most important election in U.S. history, receiving 38% of the votes.

4. Australia, which with its orientation toward the mining sector is dependent on the wealth of China’s slide into recession because of a slowdown in the rising Asian giant.

5. Next year more than 50 European banks will pass on the balance sheet, and some well-known commercial banking brands will disappear from the face of the earth. This happens due to the fact that at the beginning of 2012 the pressure on the European banking system to increase as banks are forced to be as soon as possible to get rid of debt. As a result, financial assets will be sold out, but willing to buy them on the market a bit. Total freeze of operations in the European interbank market will lead to the fact that depositors will pull their money out en masse from banks, as to lose confidence in the guarantee on deposits of insolvent states.

6. Next year the status of asylum in Switzerland will go to Sweden and Norway. Although the capital markets of both these countries in terms of much less than the Swiss, investment managers are looking for new alternative shelters for capital as well as the Swiss actively devalue its currency. Investment in government bonds in Sweden and Norway in order to protect the capital are becoming so popular that the rate of return on their 10-year securities falls by more than 100 basis points below the rate of classically strong German bonds.

7. Swiss National Bank will be the winner, and the euro / franc will soar to around 1.50. Due to the fact that in 2012, the fundamentals of Switzerland (especially export-related) will continue to deteriorate significantly under the influence of earlier high-franc, the Central Bank and the government will increase pressure to stop the further destruction of welfare, enhance existing programs and even introduce negative interest rates, sufficient to trigger capital flight out of the traditional safe assets in Switzerland and growth of the euro / franc to the mark of 1.50 in the year.

8. The dollar to Chinese yuan in the next year will grow by 10% to 7.00. This happens due to the fact that revenues from the construction of ghost towns for millions of people down, and exporters are trying hard to save the paltry profits. In connection with the strengthening of the renminbi, China is on the verge of recession, with GDP growth of 5-6%. The Chinese authorities, in turn, come to help exporters by allowing depreciation of the yuan against the dollar, resulting in a pair of flies by 10% to reach 7.00.

9. Decline in oil prices in 2012 may cause increase of the index Baltic Dry Index is 100%, as operating costs go down. It is assumed that Brazil and Australia will increase the supply of iron ore, which will further decline in prices, and hence increase demand for imports from China to meet the needs of the industrial production. In conjunction with the softening of monetary policy it will trigger a rapid increase in demand for iron ore.

10. After the 2011 wheat proved to be the most productive low culture, and in 2012 the price traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, wheat will double. It will happen because of speculative investors, who formed one of the largest short position in history, will help the price go back to a record high, which was established in 2008.

27.12.2011 14:23