Baku, Fineko/abc.az. By his order #Q-05 Finance Minister Samir Sharifov of Azerbaijan has approved the methodology of forecasting and modeling of state revenues.

The order prescribes head of the Ministry of Finance Tax Policy & Revenue Department Jamil Alizadeh to run forecasting of state revenues for the coming years on the new methodology. General supervision over the execution of the order is assigned to the Deputy Finance Minister Azer Bayramov.

When forecasting it will be used the updated database, specific forecasting models, and the process itself will be conducted transparently. Alternative models and methodologies can also be used for that. An econometric model and the structural regression were recognized the basic model. It will be applied the extrapolation method, including analysis on trends, the effective tax rate (ETR). It will also be used the model of micro-simulation on groups (large taxpayers, cities, regions, types of income), the model of calculated general balance (CGE).

The methodology also specifies the structure of the consolidated budget revenue by referring to them the income of the social security fund, oil fund, and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.

The methodology also includes a formula for calculating the impact of changes in oil prices on $1 per barrel on tax revenues of the non-oil sector and other formulae of modeling and forecasting.

31.05.2012 13:16