Baku, Fineko/abc.az. The World Bank’s Outlook for primary energy supplies, heat, and electricity is questionable for the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region, despite Central Asia’s current role as a major energy supplier to both Eastern and Western Europe.

According to the WB report, in spite of the underlying resource base, the region as a whole will face an energy crunch unless investments of more than $3 trillion are made over the next 20 years.

“The demand for primary energy in the Europe and Central Asia region is expected to increase by 50 percent by 2030, while the demand for electricity is expected to increase by 90 percent,” said Peter Thomson, Director for Sustainable Development in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia region.

In his view, before the current global financial crisis hit in 2008 several importing countries in the region had begun to experience difficulties with supplies.

“The financial crisis has slowed demand for energy and has created some breathing room to allow countries to take action to mitigate the impact of the anticipated energy crunch. But this window of opportunity will only exist for about five to six years. Mitigating actions are required on both the supply and the demand side, and without a change in behavior the region as a whole could face an energy crunch – moving from being a net energy exporter to a net energy importer by 2030,” Thomson said.

The projected needs for primary energy development from 2010 to 2030 are estimated to be on the order of almost $1.3 trillion in order to ensure the availability of oil, gas, and coal. In addition, the region’s power sector infrastructure is in desperate need of upgrading. Electricity capacity has hardly increased since the early 1990s and plants are getting old. Investment needed in power sector infrastructure over the next 20 to 25 years is on the order of $1.5 trillion, with a further $500 billion required for district heating.

“The deteriorating capacity has not yet become a full-blown crisis,” said Thomson, “because of the decline in demand during the 1990s and the current drop off in demand related to the financial crisis. But construction lead times of several years mean that action is required now. This level of investment – more than $3 trillion – cannot be provided in this region by the public sector alone. Attracting private sector investors will require changing the investment climate to make it conducive to such investment,” Thomson said.

19.03.2010 12:54