CBA's attitude to Fitch Solutions' forecast on a fall in manat rate to dollar

16:25 - 6.12.2023


December 6, Fineko/abc.az. Some time ago, Fitch Solutions, making a forecast for the Azerbaijani manat, reported that in 2027 the exchange rate of the manat against the US dollar will decrease to 1 manat 75 gapiks, and from 2028 - to 1 manat 80 gapiks. Naturally, this was ambiguously perceived by both analysts and economists, and it was even reported that this forecast is far from reality. Commenting on the forecast, some economists stressed that the Azerbaijani government is currently seriously striving to maintain the stability of the manat exchange rate.

We have sent a corresponding request to find out CBA’s position, regarding this forecast by Fitch Solutions.

In response to an ABC.AZ, the CBA stated that each organization makes forecasts based on its existing forecasting models and can interpret these forecasts more accurately itself.

"As for the current macroeconomic trends in the country, we declare that the supply in the foreign exchange market significantly exceeds the demand. The main reason for this is that the balance of payments has a large surplus on the current account. CBA’s forecasts indicate that even in the medium term, the international environment remains favorable and the country's non-oil and gas export potential is being realized. This also confirms the expectation that the balance of payments will be in surplus and that positive trends in the foreign exchange market will continue," the CBA said in a statement.

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