16:45 - 10.09.2024

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September 10, Fineko/abc.az. The Netherlands-based ING Group has released its latest economic growth projections for Azerbaijan, forecasting a growth rate of 3.5% in 2024, 2.6% in 2025, and 2.8% in 2026.

ABC.AZ reports that these figures represent a slight downward revision of 0.3 percentage points for 2024 compared to the previous forecast, while the 2025 projection has been raised by 0.1 percentage points, and the 2026 forecast remains unchanged.

According to the report, Azerbaijan's GDP growth is expected to reach 3% in the third quarter of 2024 and 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead to 2025, economic growth is projected to be 2% in the first quarter, 2.5% in the second quarter, and 3% in both the third and fourth quarters.

The State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan reported that the country's GDP increased by 4.5% in January-July of this year compared to the same period last year. The Azerbaijani government's own projections anticipate GDP growth of 2.4% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025.

Various international organizations have also provided their forecasts for Azerbaijan's economic growth. The United Nations (UN) predicts GDP growth of 3.8% this year and 2.8% in 2025. The World Bank estimates GDP growth of 2.3% this year and 2.4% in 2025-2026. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts GDP growth of 2.8% this year and an annual growth rate above 2.3% from 2025-2028 and above 2.4% from 2029-2032.

The Dutch company ING Group predicts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 2.2% in 2024, 4.7% in 2025, and 4.5% in 2026, Report informs, citing the company.

The new forecast for 2024 and 2025 is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous month’s forecast. For 2026, it is 0.3 percentage points higher.

According to forecasts, in the third quarter of 2024, the average annual inflation in Azerbaijan is expected at 3.2%, and in the fourth quarter at 4.5%.

Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2025, the average annual inflation in Azerbaijan is expected at 5.5%, in the second quarter at 5.9%, in the third quarter at 4% and in the fourth quarter at 3.6%.

Other notable projections include the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), which anticipates GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, and international rating agencies such as S&P Global Ratings, Moody's, and Fitch Ratings, all of which forecast continued positive growth for Azerbaijan's economy in the coming years.