12:40 - 12.05.2025

---

May 12, Fineko/abc.az. Dutch financial giant ING Group has revised down its economic growth forecast for Azerbaijan in 2025 by 0.5 percentage points.

ABC.AZ reports, referring to ING, that the bank now expects Azerbaijan’s real GDP to grow by 4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from its previous estimate of 4.5%. The overall forecast for 2025 has also been lowered from 3% to 2.5%. For 2026, ING projects a 2.5% growth rate.

The downward revision reflects weak economic performance recorded in the first quarter of 2025.

According to the State Statistics Committee, Azerbaijan's economy grew by just 0.3% in the first quarter of this year.

Among other international institutions, S&P Global forecasts 2% growth for 2024, while Fitch Ratings expects 3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. Moody’s predicts a consistent annual growth of 2.5%.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Azerbaijan’s economy to grow by 3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. The International Monetary Fund forecasts 3.5% and 2.5% respectively. According to the World Bank, growth will be 2.7% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. The Asian Development Bank anticipates 3.4% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026.