12:33 - 10.12.2025

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December 10, Fineko/abc.az. The forecast that annual inflation will be within the target by the end of 2025 and in 2026 remains unchanged.

ABC.AZ reports, referring to the Central Bank, that an analysis of changes in the balance of inflation risks since the previous discount rate meeting indicates a relative decrease in pro-inflationary factors.

"Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions and instability in the global trading environment continue to maintain the high level of uncertainty in commodity and financial markets. The key external risk related to the transfer effect of import prices on domestic inflation. Its scale will depend on inflationary processes in the trading partner countries and the dynamics of the nominal effective exchange rate. Internal risks are mainly formed under the influence of supply and cost factors. At the same time, the initial parameters of State Budget 2026, as well as slowdown in the annual growth rate of lending, reduce the likelihood of an excessive increase in aggregate demand," the regulator notes.

According to the October forecasts of the Central Bank, annual inflation is expected to reach 6% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026.