16:33 - 16.12.2025

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December 16, Fineko/abc.az. - (special news) - Every year, towards the end of the year, rumors about possible devaluation begin to circulate in society. This year, similar conversations began. Unfortunately, there are limited official sources to learn about this, so we applied to an expert to find out how these rumors correspond to reality.

Economist Rashad Hasanov confirmed to ABC.AZ that there are no such rumors.

The expert notes that this issue is one of the most sensitive for society, and believes that under the current conditions, the probability of making decisions on devaluation is extremely low.

"Firstly, Azerbaijan's strategic foreign exchange reserves are currently at a high level and have increased in recent years. An analysis of the reserves of both the Central Bank and the State Oil Fund, as well as the results of the balance of payments, in particular, for 9 months, shows the presence of deficit. However, the causes of this deficit are controllable. Thus, the main role in imports is played by non-monetary gold imports, which are investments in assets that can be used in the future to insure the corresponding risks.

On the other hand, there is an increase in investments from Azerbaijan both to foreign countries and in the form of direct investments. In the long-term prospect, this creates significant opportunities for the balance of payments both through the repatriation of investments and the return of income on them. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that, compared with 2015, the possibilities of large amounts of funds entering the market in the short term, as well as a sharp increase in demand for foreign currency in Azerbaijan, are limited today.

In addition, the government has so far preferred a strategy of sharply increasing State Budget expenditures in 2026. This is a factor that partially neutralizes the pressure on the foreign exchange market from government spending. At that, government's stable position and relevant signals from relevant government agencies suggest that the state, having mobilized all its resources, will continue its policy of maintaining exchange rate stability in 2026. Therefore, I assess the risk of devaluation as very low."

The expert also predicted the possible consequences of the devaluation for Azerbaijan: "This will not be a severe devaluation like in 2015, when the exchange rate of the manat decreased by 50-60%. Even if a position is ever formed and a decision is made in this direction, we may be talking about a devaluation of about 10 percent. This is a managed process.

Of course, there are negative aspects to this: imported inflation is deepening, a less favorable economic environment is forming in terms of poverty, and business profitability is declining. That is, devaluation is not a desirable phenomenon. However, even if such a decision is made, the profound consequences observed in 2015 are no longer expected. I repeat once again: even if such a decision is made, its scale and impact will be significantly lower."

By Elmir Murad