10:57 - 22.01.2026

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January 22, Fineko/abc.az. According to Moody's, an international ratings agency, Azerbaijan's total public debt will amount to 23.9% of GDP in 2026.

ABC.AZ informs, referring to the agency's update, that this figure will decrease slightly in 2027, to 23.8% of GDP. Moody's also expects a similar public debt level by the end of 2025 – 23.8% of GDP.

At the same time, the agency estimates that the ratio of public debt to budget revenues will gradually increase amid normalization of oil prices and increased government spending. The ratio will increase from 41.6% in 2022, when the budget received high oil revenues, to 75-80% in later years. Specifically, it is projected to reach 74.6% in 2026 and 78.4% in 2027. Despite the increase, Moody's still views this level as comfortable in terms of fiscal sustainability.

The agency also expects the public debt servicing burden to remain low. Interest payments are forecast to remain below 6-7% of budget revenues: 5.7% in 2026 and 6.1% in 2027.

Moody's forecasts are based on an average Brent oil price of $69 per barrel in 2025 and $60 per barrel in 2026-2027. In the medium term, price fluctuations are expected to range between $55 and $75 per barrel.