Expert: Probability of devaluation in Azerbaijan is low

18.01.2022,15:27


January 18, Fineko/abc.az. Expert Akram Hasanov has commented on the introduction of restrictions on the purchase of US dollars.

ABC.AZ reports that Hasanov also asked a rhetorical question about whether the restriction on the dollar will lead to devaluation.

"Most likely, it won't. As oil prices are high unlike 2015. Other macroeconomic factors also reduce the probability of devaluation. Moreover, against the background of rising prices, the government is unlikely to take a step of devaluation: economic problems and social discontent may increase. So what happens then? There remains only an assumption: someone "passes the pass” to the "black market", that is, encourages it. Those who really need a dollar (mostly entrepreneurs) remain in a hopeless situation and enter the "black market" and buy as many dollars as they want from there. Naturally, at a price higher than the rate of banks. In general, one of the consequences of the illegal limit of 20,000 manats for the purchase of foreign currency, which has existed in the country for more than 2 years, is the activation of the "black market". Someone is "protecting" this "black market".

Who are these people? Criminals? Maybe. But it may also be that they do not consider themselves criminals and allegedly serve the interests of the state. For example, they present a problem in the "tops" so that they allegedly shoot two birds with one bullet:

1) there is no devaluation and the discontent of the absolute majority of the population does not occur (the small dollar needs of ordinary people are being met);

2) foreign exchange reserves are not melting very much, because large dollar sales are carried out at a high rate through the "black market"," Hasanov said.