16:51 - 18.04.2025
April 18, Fineko/abc.az. The agency expects the default rate among speculative-rated companies to reach 3.1% by the end of the year, compared with the previous forecast of 2.5%.
ABC.AZ reports that if this forecast is justified, it will still mean a decrease in the default rate compared to the previous year. But Moody's says it won't take a serious negative shock for the level to rise, possibly to 6%.
Credit agencies around the world have revised their forecasts for 2025 and now see risk premiums rising while growth slows. Moody's forecasts are based on the assumption that tariffs will reduce U.S. GDP growth by at least one percentage point, as well as weaken other economies.
All this will worsen financing conditions for borrowers and make investors more inclined to avoid risks.
